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Monday, March 30, 2009

Expert Predictions are on Par with Chance

This is a very interesting article which appeared in the New York Times by NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF on March 26, 2009.

What's interesting is how 'Hedgehogs'- experts with strong convictions who tend to see things in black and white - provide better 'soundbites' and are thus featured more prominently than 'Foxes' - who are more pragmatic and cautious and tend to be more accurate in predictions - but don't get as much air time due to providing less impressive 'soundbites'.

Something we should all keep in mind when we listen to experts making strong statements about the economy (or anything else for that matter).

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